Calculated risks : how to know when numbers deceive you / Gerd Gigerenzer.
| Author/creator |
Gigerenzer, Gerd |
| Format | Book and Print |
| Publication Info | New York : Simon & Schuster, 2002. |
| Description | viii, 310 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm |
| Supplemental Content | Contributor biographical information |
| Supplemental Content | Table of contents |
| Supplemental Content | Publisher description |
| Subject(s) |
Click here for more information about this title
| Contents | pt. 1. Dare to know -- 1. Uncertainty -- 2. The illusion of certainty -- 3. Innumeracy -- 4. Insight -- pt. 2. Understanding uncertainties in the real world -- 5. Breast cancer screening -- 6. (Un)informed consent -- 7. AIDS counseling -- 8. Wife battering -- 9. Experts on trial -- 10. DNA fingerprinting -- 11. Violent people -- pt. 3. From innumeracy to insight -- 12. How innumeracy can be exploited -- 13. Fun problems -- 14. Teaching clear thinking. |
| Subject | Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives. |
| Bibliography note | Includes bibliographical references (p. 281-296) and index. |
| Issued in other form | Online version: Gigerenzer, Gerd. Calculated risks. New York : Simon & Schuster, 2002 |
| LCCN | 2002017010 |
| ISBN | 0743205561 |
| ISBN | 9780743205566 |
Available Items
| Library | Location | Call Number | Status | Item Actions | |
| Joyner | General Stacks | QA273.15 .G54 2002 | ✔ Available | Place Hold | |
| Laupus | Books - Stacks | QA 276 G459C 2002 | ✔ Available | Place Hold |