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001 ocn213400968;

003 OCoLC;

005 20150710070713.1;

008 100510r20102007nyua b 001 0 eng d;

010 a| 2010292618;

019 a| 910213695;

020 a| 081297381X;

020 a| 9780812973815q| (pbk.);

035 a| (Sirsi) 99965806656;

035 a| 99965806656;

035 a| (OCoLC)213400968z| (OCoLC)910213695;

042 a| lccopycat;

050 00 a| Q375b| .T35 2010;

082 00 a| 003/.542| 22;

100 1 a| Taleb, Nassim Nicholas,d| 1960-e| author.=| ^A492780;

245 14 a| The black swan :b| the impact of the highly improbable /c| Nassim Nicholas Taleb.;

250 a| 2nd ed., Random trade pbk. ed.;

300 a| xxxiii, 444 pages :b| illustrations ;c| 21 cm;

336 a| textb| txt2| rdacontent;

337 a| unmediatedb| n2| rdamedia;

338 a| volumeb| nc2| rdacarrier;

500 a| "Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States ... by Random House in 2007"--Title page verso.;

504 a| Includes bibliographical references (pages 401-429) and index.;

505 0 a| Prologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible.;

520 a| Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.;

650 0 a| Uncertainty (Information theory)x| Social aspects.=| ^A48773;

650 0 a| Forecasting.=| ^A3841;

650 6 a| Incertitude (Théorie de l'information)x| Aspect social.;

650 6 a| Prévision.;

650 7 a| Teoria da informação (aspectos sociais)2| larpcal;

949 i| 30372016610070o| jjlm;

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596 a| 1;

998 a| 4355606;

999 a| Q375 .T35 2010w| LCc| 1i| 30372016610070d| 1/9/2019e| 12/4/2018l| JGESm| JOYNERn| 2r| Ys| Yt| JGESBKu| 3/8/2016x| BOOKz| JSTACKSo| .STAFF. jjlm;

The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Author/creator	Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 1960- author.
Format	Book
Edition	2nd ed., Random trade pbk. ed.
Publication Info	New York : Random House Trade Paperbacks, ©2010.
Description	xxxiii, 444 pages : illustrations ; 21 cm
Subjects	Uncertainty (Information theory)--Social aspects. Forecasting. Incertitude (Théorie de l'information)--Aspect social. Prévision.

Contents	Prologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible.
Abstract	Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
General note	"Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States ... by Random House in 2007"--Title page verso.
Bibliography note	Includes bibliographical references (pages 401-429) and index.
LCCN	2010292618
ISBN	081297381X
ISBN	9780812973815 (pbk.)

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Joyner	General Stacks	Q375 .T35 2010	✔ Available	Place Hold

The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

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