Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey
| Author/creator | Tanner, Evan Author |
| Other author | Samak, Issouf Author |
| Format | Electronic |
| Publication Info | Washington : International Monetary Fund |
| Description | 63 p. |
| Supplemental Content | Full text available from Ebook Central - Academic Complete |
| Summary | Annotation This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. for each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks. |
| Access restriction | Available only to authorized users. |
| Technical details | Mode of access: World Wide Web |
| Genre/form | Electronic books. |
| ISBN | 9781451910087 |
| ISBN | 1451910088 (E-Book) Active Record |
| Stock number | 00013468 |
Availability
| Library | Location | Call Number | Status | Item Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Resources | Access Content Online | ✔ Available |